It’s hard to believe that CES2020 wrapped up exactly 6 months ago this week. Who would have fathomed that all the potential for consumer technology that the industry promised as the new decade rang in would come to such a sudden halt thanks to the global COVID-19 pandemic? How quickly things have changed indeed.
In my last post, I discussed how product features and commercialization strategies will need to adapt to the new post-coronavirus reality. Looking back at CES wrap-up stories from major publications like Fortune, The Verge, Engadget, and CNET, the buzz of Las Vegas in January was centered around devices like giant 8k displays, foldable phones and tablets, robots that do everything from replace pets to bring us toilet paper, and exoskeletons and prosthetics to augment human abilities. Smart home devices were everywhere and ranged from utilitarian and practical to innovative to ‘someday I hope be able to afford one’ to ‘solutions looking for problems’.
CES product announcements are always a blend of visionary and aspirational, with a lot of me-too and ho-hum thrown in. Many of these fail to get past the concept phase and fade into memory, but never has a large palette of technology faded from relevance as quickly as in the coronavirus age. Others products and technologies are being used in ways very differently than originally conceived. Still others, while still viable, seem less certain to succeed in a market where remote working and self-isolation are the norm, job stability is threatened, and our daily habits have permanently changed. Do consumers need $300 connected door locks, $200 thermostats or $2000 folding smartphones when they are home and are self-isolating continuously?
On the services side, all the CES talk was of geolocation targeted advertising, AI everywhere, personalization and customization vs. security and privacy, and ethics. Uber had run out of roadway, so was to take to the skies with Hyundai in personal drones, and Twitter announced plans to manage conversations in thread. Now, with most of the US stuck at home there is little – or certainly different – need for geolocation or geofencing related applications. At the same time, location tracking used for ridesharing has given way to meal delivery services since no one is traveling. Location intelligence is also being applied to self-distancing and contract tracing apps and has been adapted monitor the supply chain as manufacturers and retailers respond to changing industry and consumer demands. Zoom and Slack have gone from convenience to necessity as remote working continues becomes a permanent way-of-life.
So what will be the themes of CES 2021? I believe that there will be 3 major technologies that will drive new product innovations: digital health, AI, and cybersecurity. Digital health had it’s coming out party at last year’s CES, but given the pandemic and its impact on society, we can expect to see many new solutions to help us identify, isolate, monitor, trace, treat and eradicate COVID-19 and future outbreaks. Artificial intelligence is already advancing from a CES2020 buzzword to real-world application; hardware and software companies are developing a variety of solutions for the agriculture, entertainment, finance, and healthcare industries to name a few.
One area I am particularly eager to see is cybersecurity. As we blend our personal and professional lives in the new normal, I see a transition from ‘security and privacy’ to ‘security versus privacy’. Today consumers expect some level of security but (willingly or unwillingly) forfeit privacy for features. Corporations, meanwhile, demand the utmost of security in their data while notifying employees they have no expectation of privacy while at work or when using company equipment. As workforces become increasingly distributed and employees bring their work into their homes, how will this change? I see a scenario where employers demand big ‘S’, little ‘p’, and employees desire little ‘s’, big ‘P’. The ability – or need – to provide flexibility for workers to maximize productivity while insuring their privacy while guaranteeing employers’ needs for work product security should provide an opportunity for new and compelling products and services announcements.
In my 2020 CES show wrap-up I talked about how big CES has become; at the time of this writing show organizers are still committed to holding CES2021 as normal, but my many of my contacts are on the fence about attending, and my sources say many international companies will not participate at all given the continued coronavirus concerns. If CES2021 does happen, it will undoubtedly be much smaller. I expect the smaller size will result in a high number of product announcements and concepts targeted to the needs of consumers in this ‘new normal’.
Stay safe! Comments solicited…