Happy New Year everyone. I’m sure by now we’ve all had our fill of the “thank goodness 2020 is behind us and there’s no doubt 2021 will be better” script, so I’ll leave it there. I generally like to kick off the year with a few observations of how accurate my predictions of the past year came to pass, but a global pandemic and the resulting impact on every facet of the tech industry was forecasted by exactly NO ONE, so I’ll skip that as well. On to 2021…
Normally this is the prime season for trade shows, starting with CES in Las Vegas in early January, followed shortly thereafter by Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in late February. Those two events – which have expanded far beyond the consumer and mobile industries – tend to set the stage for key technology announcements for the year. Sure, there are other events in the spring and fall, and a variety of single-company events (think Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and others) scattered throughout the year. But CES and MWC tend to set the tone on what new technologies we will see in for that year and the direction the tech industry at large will head for several subsequent product cycles.
COVID-19 has changed the landscape for technology products in every way imaginable. The types of products and services needed in a stay-at-home, remote work environment are very different than those needed just one year ago. The PC has regained its place as the dominant productivity and education tool in our home offices, while ultra-high end smartphones we used to live on while always on the go seem superfluous. Ridesharing and air travel has given way to meal delivery and Zoom calls; company offsites and conferences have yielded to Slack, Teams, and Meet. The entire industry is scrambling to adapt to our ‘new normal’ even though we are not there yet.
This year’s CES is all online, and from what I can tell so far, very muted. The website is challenging to navigate and aside from a few highly publicized keynote presentations, the actual content available is unclear. I spent a lot of time on virtual conferences last year and found them tough to stay engaged with even when content was well organized and easy to find. I have a few days yet to plan my schedule for CES, but am worried that I will spend so much time finding useful content that I may give up and miss out on something really insightful or interesting.
Conferences like CES and MWC have historically been where business gets done as well – from networking mixers shared between industry colleagues to sales meetings in a vendor’s booth to high level executive dinners and private parties. But not this year… and maybe not ever. Those old enough to remember COMDEX will remember that it was the big tech industry event held each November, also in Vegas, until the attacks of 9/11 impacted IT spending and travel. COMDEX was eventually eliminated after the 2003 show as most exhibitors shifted to CES.
The business of trade shows like CES, MWC and COMDEX still gets done – or does it? Can relationship building, product evolution, and technology commerce flourish without in-person meetings? Early in my career, a wise boss once told me to never choose a supplier without going to their facility to see their operations and meeting them face-to-face, as that is the only way you can secure their commitment and gauge their ability to deliver. Of course, this is more applicable to product businesses than software and services, but is it really a must?
It is easy to hash out product requirements, negotiate pricing and scheduling, and even ship samples around the globe in 2021. Companies large and small can find suppliers ready to develop hardware or software products for them, and when things work as expected everyone is happy. However, even in the best of times there are problems – last minute spec changes, quality problems, and supply chain issues. This is when the importance of relationships is tested; when the shared meal, handshake, or company visit can give a company a competitive edge in getting its needs fulfilled. In an environment where personal relationships are diluted to video conference images, negotiation leverage shifts to the big, established companies. Everybody wants Amazon’s or Apple’s business – but who will support Jane Startup’s new product MVP or buy Acme’s Wonder Widget if they don’t know it exists?
We all know that big companies innovate – but little companies can and historically have proven to innovate much faster and take more risks as a way to differentiate themselves. For them, it is a matter of survival. This is why shows like CES and MWC matter – literally 1000s of companies convene to promote ideas ranging from creative to whacky. The sheer variety of this amount of technology forced the cream to rise to the top to the benefit of us all. Not every year, mind you – there were plenty of past years that were ho-hum across the board.
There will be no in-person shows until later this year – if at all; instead there will be a dizzying schedule of online demos, panel discussions and keynotes. It will be difficult – if not impossible – for small and medium size companies to rise above the noise and get their messages out effectively, much less secure new business relationships in the current online environment. CES has had a wonderful section dedicated to start-ups called Eureka Park held in a separate location in recent years. Last year I spent at least as much time there as I did in the main convention center location. I discovered some great new companies and technologies in Eureka Park, mostly by accident as I walked down the halls. I don’t see how that environment can be replicated effectively in the current online tradeshow paradigm.
Instead of making any predictions, I will share my expectation that 2021 is a year where B2B and B2B2C business transformation begins. The consumer electronics industry will have to adapt to the not-yet-finalized new normal where decisions and decision makers are globally distributed. Can hardware companies solve the problem of giving a hands-on demo to multiple people simultaneously throughout the world, perhaps through some hybrid combination of AR and 3D printed mock-ups? Can software solution providers create business collaboration platforms that help young, innovative companies gain a voice, perhaps some combination of VR and holography?
Despite my concerns about the ineffectiveness of online trade shows, I am eager to participate in this year’s CES in hope that I can find a glimpse or two of what the future of similar events will look like. I am also optimistic that we will adapt to our new normal, whatever it will be – but it will be challenging and will take time. This presents an opportunity to really change the way we do business at a distance – clever companies who can develop new products and platforms to connect B2B buyers and sellers virtually have the potential to be the next industry giants.
Best wishes to all of you for a happy, safe, and prosperous 2021. As always, comments solicited…